With the upcoming Presidential election, it’s understandable to wonder what’s in store for the future. Those unanswered questions can lead to feelings of fear and uncertainty. If you're thinking about buying or selling a home this year, you might be eager to know how the election could impact the housing market and whether it's still a good time to make your move.

Here’s some good news you might find surprising: Presidential elections usually don’t have a long-lasting effect on the housing market; any changes tend to be minor and temporary. That said, your questions are important, and you shouldn’t have to hold off on your plans while you look for answers.

Take a look at the data from the last several decades that reveals how home sales, prices, and mortgage rates have changed during past Presidential election cycles. This information can help you make an informed decision as you consider the advantages and disadvantages of owning a home.

Home Sales

As we get closer to a Presidential election, home sales usually see a slight dip from October to November (check out the graph below).

Some buyers might choose to hold off on their purchase for a while. It's good to keep in mind, though, that this slowdown is minor and only temporary.

Home sales typically rebound and keep increasing in the year that follows.

According to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales have increased in the year following 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections. This trend has been consistent since the early 1990s.

Home Prices

You might be curious about home prices. Do they usually decrease during election years? Generally, no. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist points out:

““An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
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— Ryan Lundquist

Home prices typically increase over time, regardless of election cycles. Looking at historical trends, it's reasonable to expect that the current pricing pattern in your local market will likely persist unless something out of the ordinary happens in the market or the economy.

Recent data from the National Association of Realtors shows that, following 7 out of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices tended to rise in the year after.

The exception was from 2008 to 2009, which took place during the peak of the housing market crash. That year was definitely not normal. Today’s market, on the other hand, is far more stable. Although prices are leveling off nationally, they’re not experiencing an overall drop.

Mortgage Rates

The third thing you might be thinking about is mortgage rates, as they play a big role in determining your monthly payments when you're financing a home. According to data from Freddie Mac, in the last 11 Presidential election years, mortgage rates dropped from July to November in 8 of those years.

This year, we’re already seeing some movement in mortgage rates. Most experts predict that rates will continue to decrease a bit for the rest of 2024. If this trend continues—and current indicators suggest it might—then buyers can expect lower rates this year. This could be positive news for those looking to purchase a home in the coming months, as it may enhance your purchasing power.

What This Means for You

What's the main point? Presidential elections can influence the housing market, but the impact is generally slight. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes:

““Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
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— Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS

For many buyers and sellers, elections usually don't significantly affect their plans.

Bottom Line

It's completely normal to feel a bit uneasy during an election year. However, history indicates that the housing market tends to stay strong and resilient. This means you don't need to put your plans on hold. If you’re looking for support while navigating the market during this election cycle, let’s get in touch.