The 2024 Presidential election is swiftly approaching, just months away. If you're considering buying or selling a home, you might be wondering about the impact that elections could have on the housing market.

When buying or selling a home, it's completely understandable to contemplate how this significant decision could potentially affect your future goals.

Historically, the impact of Presidential elections on the housing market has been minimal and short-lived. Here are the most recent updates on how home sales, prices, and mortgage rates have fared during those periods.

Home Sales

In November of Presidential election years, there is usually a minor dip in home sales. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, elaborates on this trend.

““Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal.”
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— Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda

Most individuals feel unsure and hesitant when making significant choices at this crucial moment. Nevertheless, it is crucial to understand that this deceleration is ephemeral. Traditionally, home purchases pick up in December and progressively increase in the subsequent year.

According to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), home sales increased in the year following nine out of the last 11 Presidential elections.

The graph displays yearly home sales data dating back to 1978. Presidential election years are highlighted in blue, while the subsequent year is shown in green if there was an increase in existing home sales. Only two instances are marked in orange, representing years where home sales declined following an election.

Home Prices

Home prices do not usually drop during election years, according to residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist.

““An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”
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— Ryan Lundquist

Home prices tend to be quite resilient, typically experiencing year-over-year increases, regardless of election cycles. According to the most recent data from NAR, after seven out of the last eight Presidential elections, home prices saw an increase in the following year, as illustrated in the graph below.

Like the graph before, this one displays election years in blue. The single year with a price decrease post-election is shown in orange, which coincided with the housing market crash - a far cry from the usual. The current real estate market differs significantly from that period.

All the green bars indicate when prices increased the following year. Therefore, if you're concerned that your home's value might decrease due to an election, you can be reassured that prices typically rise after most Presidential elections.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates play a significant role in determining your monthly payment when purchasing a home. Analyzing the trends over the past 11 Presidential election years, data provided by Freddie Mac indicates that mortgage rates decreased between July and November in eight of those years as illustrated in the chart provided.

Most projections anticipate that mortgage rates will likely decrease slightly for the rest of the year. If these forecasts are accurate, we could see a continuation of the trend of rates decreasing before previous elections. For prospective homebuyers in the near future, this potential decrease could be advantageous, possibly resulting in a reduced monthly payment on a home loan.

What This Means for You

The key point is that although Presidential elections can influence the housing market to some extent, the changes are typically minor and short-lived. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, emphasizes this perspective.

““Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”
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— Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS

For many buyers and sellers, elections typically don't have a significant impact on their real estate plans.

Bottom Line

While it's common to feel unsure during an election year, the housing market has proven to stay robust and resilient throughout history. If you need assistance navigating the market, regardless of the election year, feel free to reach out.