With the 2024 presidential election just around the corner, you might be curious about how it could be affecting the housing market. Let’s take a closer look.

Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown

Home sales usually slow down a bit in the fall—it’s just a common seasonal trend. But in election years, according to BTIG data, there’s often an even bigger dip in home sales during the month leading up to Election Day (check out the graph below):

Why does this happen? It’s all about uncertainty. Many people pause on big decisions or purchases as they wait to see how the election unfolds. This pattern shows up time and time again, especially among buyers and sellers in the housing market.

This year’s no exception. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers are waiting until after the election to make a purchase. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers pressing pause—most likely because of that same sense of uncertainty.

Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election

The good news? These delayed sales aren’t gone for good—they’re just on hold. History shows that sales often bounce back once the election is over. In fact, home sales have increased 82% of the time in the year following an election (take a look at the chart below):

This happens because, once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a clearer sense of what’s ahead and usually feel more confident about moving forward. That boost in confidence often leads to a rise in home sales.

What To Expect in 2025

If history is any guide, we can expect more homes to sell next year. In fact, the latest forecasts suggest just that. As shown in the graph below, the housing market is on track to reach 4.6 million home sales this year, with projections rising to 5.2 million sales next year.

That fits right in with the usual pattern of post-election rebounds.

So, even though the market might feel a bit slow right now, it’s more of a temporary dip than a lasting trend. Like in past years, once the election uncertainty clears, buyers and sellers are likely to jump back in.

Bottom Line

It’s key to remember that while election years often lead to a brief slowdown in the housing market, this pause is usually just temporary. Those sales aren’t gone for good. Data shows that home sales typically rise in the year following a presidential election, and current forecasts suggest 2025 will be the same. If you’re holding off until you have a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to gain momentum in the coming months.