So, if you're considering moving right now, I bet one of the main things on your mind is: what's the deal with home prices? I know you may be hearing some stuff in the news, but let me set the record straight. Across the country, home prices aren't actually going down. It's just that the rate of price growth is starting to even out. Let me break it down for you and give you the full picture.

In the world of real estate, there's a pattern we like to call seasonality. Basically, it means that the housing market has its ups and downs throughout the year. Springtime is when things really heat up and lots of people are looking to buy homes. The summer is still pretty busy, but as we head into the cooler months, the market starts to calm down a little. And here's an interesting tidbit: home prices tend to go up when there's a high demand. So, when everyone is out house hunting in the spring, prices usually go up with that excitement.

You know what's interesting? There's actually this really reliable trend when it comes to long-term home prices. And guess what? We have a cool graph that shows it! We used data from Case-Shiller to track the monthly movement of home prices from 1973 all the way up to 2022. Oh, and just so you know, we didn't adjust the data for seasonality, so you can see the natural ups and downs throughout the years. It's pretty fascinating, right?

Well, check this out. At the start of the year, home prices tend to go up, but not as much as they do in the spring and summer. You know why? Well, it's because fewer people are moving during the colder months, so the market is not as busy in January and February. But hold on, when the spring comes around, things get pretty exciting! The housing market heats up, and home prices shoot up even more. It's like everyone suddenly wants to buy a house, you know? But hey, as we head towards the fall and winter, the action slows down again. The growth in prices takes a breather, but they still go up, just not as fast as in the peak season. So, there you have it! The housing market has its own little dance throughout the year.

After a few really strange and exceptional years, we're finally starting to see some normality return to the housing market. And you know what sparked it? Yup, you guessed it - higher mortgage rates. According to Selma Hepp, who's the Chief Economist at CoreLogic, this is the first indicator that the seasons are making a comeback in the real estate world.

““High mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.””

— Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic

Why This Is So Important to Understand

Over the next few months, the media is going to be buzzing about home prices. In all the news coverage, you'll probably come across some fancy industry terms like these:

• Appreciation: when prices increase.

• Deceleration of appreciation: when prices continue to appreciate, but at a slower or more moderate pace.

• Depreciation: when prices decrease.

Don't stress too much about all the fancy words and headlines you might come across. The thing is, the housing market has been growing like crazy for the past few years, but that kind of growth just can't last forever. So now, what we're starting to notice is that the pace of price increases is actually slowing down – it's not that the prices are going down or anything. It's just a bit of a breather, you know?

Just wanted to give you a heads up that it's totally normal for home price growth to gradually slow down throughout the year. But don't worry, that doesn't necessarily mean that home prices are dropping. It just means that they're increasing at a more moderate rate.

Bottom Line

I know the headlines can be pretty alarming these days, making it all confusing about what's going on with home prices. But here's the deal - nothing too out of the ordinary is happening. Home prices are just following their usual seasonal patterns. If you're feeling confused and have questions about how prices are faring in our local area, hit me up. Let's chat and get you all the answers you need.